coxph model
Fed-Joint: Joint Modeling of Nonlinear Degradation Signals and Failure Events for Remaining Useful Life Prediction using Federated Learning
Jeong, Cheoljoon, Yue, Xubo, Chung, Seokhyun
Many failure mechanisms of machinery are closely related to the behavior of condition monitoring (CM) signals. To achieve a cost-effective preventive maintenance strategy, accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on the signals is of paramount importance. However, the CM signals are often recorded at different factories and production lines, with limited amounts of data. Unfortunately, these datasets have rarely been shared between the sites due to data confidentiality and ownership issues, a lack of computing and storage power, and high communication costs associated with data transfer between sites and a data center. Another challenge in real applications is that the CM signals are often not explicitly specified \textit{a priori}, meaning that existing methods, which often usually a parametric form, may not be applicable. To address these challenges, we propose a new prognostic framework for RUL prediction using the joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and time-to-failure data within a federated learning scheme. The proposed method constructs a nonparametric degradation model using a federated multi-output Gaussian process and then employs a federated survival model to predict failure times and probabilities for in-service machinery. The superiority of the proposed method over other alternatives is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and a case study using turbofan engine degradation signal data that include run-to-failure events.
CK4Gen: A Knowledge Distillation Framework for Generating High-Utility Synthetic Survival Datasets in Healthcare
Kuo, Nicholas I-Hsien, Gallego, Blanca, Jorm, Louisa
Access to real clinical data is heavily restricted by privacy regulations, hindering both healthcare research and education. These constraints slow progress in developing new treatments and data-driven healthcare solutions, while also limiting students' access to real-world datasets, leaving them without essential practical skills. High-utility synthetic datasets are therefore critical for advancing research and providing meaningful training material. However, current generative models -- such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) -- produce surface-level realism at the expense of healthcare utility, blending distinct patient profiles and producing synthetic data of limited practical relevance. To overcome these limitations, we introduce CK4Gen (Cox Knowledge for Generation), a novel framework that leverages knowledge distillation from Cox Proportional Hazards (CoxPH) models to create synthetic survival datasets that preserve key clinical characteristics, including hazard ratios and survival curves. CK4Gen avoids the interpolation issues seen in VAEs and GANs by maintaining distinct patient risk profiles, ensuring realistic and reliable outputs for research and educational use. Validated across four benchmark datasets -- GBSG2, ACTG320, WHAS500, and FLChain -- CK4Gen outperforms competing techniques by better aligning real and synthetic data, enhancing survival model performance in both discrimination and calibration via data augmentation. As CK4Gen is scalable across clinical conditions, and with code to be made publicly available, future researchers can apply it to their own datasets to generate synthetic versions suitable for open sharing.
Addressing Data Heterogeneity in Federated Learning of Cox Proportional Hazards Models
Seidi, Navid, Roy, Satyaki, Das, Sajal K., Tripathy, Ardhendu
The diversity in disease profiles and therapeutic approaches between hospitals and health professionals underscores the need for patient-centric personalized strategies in healthcare. Alongside this, similarities in disease progression across patients can be utilized to improve prediction models in survival analysis. The need for patient privacy and the utility of prediction models can be simultaneously addressed in the framework of Federated Learning (FL). This paper outlines an approach in the domain of federated survival analysis, specifically the Cox Proportional Hazards (CoxPH) model, with a specific focus on mitigating data heterogeneity and elevating model performance. We present an FL approach that employs feature-based clustering to enhance model accuracy across synthetic datasets and real-world applications, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Furthermore, we consider an event-based reporting strategy that provides a dynamic approach to model adaptation by responding to local data changes. Our experiments show the efficacy of our approach and discuss future directions for a practical application of FL in healthcare.
FastCPH: Efficient Survival Analysis for Neural Networks
Yang, Xuelin, Abraham, Louis, Kim, Sejin, Smirnov, Petr, Ruan, Feng, Haibe-Kains, Benjamin, Tibshirani, Robert
The Cox proportional hazards model is a canonical method in survival analysis for prediction of the life expectancy of a patient given clinical or genetic covariates -- it is a linear model in its original form. In recent years, several methods have been proposed to generalize the Cox model to neural networks, but none of these are both numerically correct and computationally efficient. We propose FastCPH, a new method that runs in linear time and supports both the standard Breslow and Efron methods for tied events. We also demonstrate the performance of FastCPH combined with LassoNet, a neural network that provides interpretability through feature sparsity, on survival datasets. The final procedure is efficient, selects useful covariates and outperforms existing CoxPH approaches.
An evaluation of machine learning techniques to predict the outcome of children treated for Hodgkin-Lymphoma on the AHOD0031 trial: A report from the Children's Oncology Group
Beaulac, Cédric, Rosenthal, Jeffrey S., Pei, Qinglin, Friedman, Debra, Wolden, Suzanne, Hodgson, David
In this manuscript we analyze a data set containing information on children with Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) enrolled on a clinical trial. Treatments received and survival status were collected together with other covariates such as demographics and clinical measurements. Our main task is to explore the potential of machine learning (ML) algorithms in a survival analysis context in order to improve over the Cox Proportional Hazard (CoxPH) model. We discuss the weaknesses of the CoxPH model we would like to improve upon and then we introduce multiple algorithms, from well-established ones to state-of-the-art models, that solve these issues. We then compare every model according to the concordance index and the brier score. Finally, we produce a series of recommendations, based on our experience, for practitioners that would like to benefit from the recent advances in artificial intelligence.
Deep Neural Networks for Survival Analysis Based on a Multi-Task Framework
Survival analysis/time-to-event models are extremely useful as they can help companies predict when a customer will buy a product, churn or default on a loan, and therefore help them improve their ROI. In this paper, we introduce a new method to calculate survival functions using the Multi-Task Logistic Regression (MTLR) model as its base and a deep learning architecture as its core. Based on the Concordance index (C-index) and Brier score, this method outperforms the MTLR in all the experiments disclosed in this paper as well as the Cox Proportional Hazard (CoxPH) model when nonlinear dependencies are found.